There are three things that make up the fun aspect of being an NFL fan. Theres the football games Devin McCourty Jerseys 2019 , obviously (the most important part, since without the football games, then football season wouldnt really鈥?um鈥?exist). Then theres fantasy football. This keeps you interested in other players that dont play for your favorite team and thus, keeps you caught up on all the happenings around the league and not just in your city. Plus it adds the thrill of competition. Theres just something about obliterating someone else to smithereens that is good and healthy for the soul.And thirdly, there is picking games or if youre a little more daring than me, actually gambling on the games. I cant afford to just give money away, which is what I would essentially be doing if I gambled on the games, so I just stick to simply making weekly picks and hoping to come out the other side at .500 or above.Like everyone, I have a few rules I like to abide by when making my picks. Its not exactly a foolproof system Im not sure one exists but its at least somewhat reasonable. So if youre like me and plan on making a pick for and/or gambling on every single NFL game this year, here are a few guidelines鈥?1. Always take home field advantage into accountIts been a true statement for all sports over the decades: home teams simply thrive off their home crowds. A roaring crowd has the ability to lift a team to an entirely different level. So even if a so-so quarterback like Kirk Cousins is going up against a great quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, but the game is in Minnesota, you cant just automatically give the game to the Packers. Home field advantage comes into effect more often than we would generally like it to. Now, the Cousins-Rodgers analogy is just for the regular season. Under no circumstances should you ever take Cousins over Rodgers in a playoff game.2. Keep an eye out for teams that are on a rollThis one kind of goes without saying, but momentum is everything! If a team has won three games in a row, they are soaring with momentum. That means they have confidence. That means they believe in themselves. And as our parents have always told us, you can do anything when you believe in yourself. If a team is on a hot streak, keep picking them until they fizzle out. Hopefully youll get more right picks than wrong picks.(Side note: Obviously, this rule doesnt come into effect until a few weeks into the season. But its an important one to keep in mind.)3. Pick at least one or two upsets every weekEvery single week, theres always at least one game that leaves us thinking, Man, I cant believe the (insert team name here) won that game! I didnt think they had a chance! The more upsets you pick White Isaiah Wynn Jerseys , the better your chances are of getting one right. And we all love that feeling when we get to yell, I called that upset! I was right! at the top of our lungs. Of course, you cant get too crazy with it. For example, you probably shouldnt pick the underdog to upset the Patriots, the Steelers, the Packers, and the Eagles all in the same week. But with at least one or two games, go ahead and take, for another example, the Chargers over the Steelers. If youve had good luck recently, or youre just feeling like its a good week, maybe pick two or three upsets. Like I said, the more upsets you pick, the better chance you have of getting one right.Just remember, theres always at least one upset that nobody sees coming every week. Think about it beforehand and you can be the one person that DID see it coming. 4. If youre itching to pick against the Patriots, do it when they play in MiamiIts a bizarre phenomenon, but the city of Miami is like kryptonite to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. In the last five seasons, the Patriots have only won once during their annual trip to south Florida to face the Dolphins. To sum up, the Pats have won more Super Bowls in the last five years than theyve won games in Miami, and they play in Miami every single year. Picking against New England in general isnt usually the best idea, but if its a road game against the Dolphins Isaiah Wynn Jerseys 2019 , it might be a fairly safe pick.5. Dont make blatantly dumb picksWe all know the Browns arent going to win more than two or three games this year, maybe four if theyre lucky, so dont try to be a hero and pick them on more than two or three occasions, if even that many. To be honest, its probably safer to just pick against the Browns every single week, because then you should be right roughly 70-80 percent of the time.6. When in doubt, go with鈥here are a couple of different methods you can go with when youre stumped and have no idea who to pick. Say youve got Rodgers, McCarthy and the Packers going against Roethlisberger, Tomlin and the Steelers. In that case, youve got a good quarterback, a good coach, and a good team on both sides. Tough to decide. In this scenario, you can revisit Rule No. 1 and get behind the home team. Theres a good chance that playing in front of its home crowd will make one good team a little better than the other good team on that given night. So if that game is happening in Green Bay, then give the advantage to the Packers and the Lambeau faithful.Or鈥ou can revisit Rule No. 2 and go with the team that has been on more of a roll lately. Even if the game is happening in Green Bay, but the Packers have lost two of their last three games while the Steelers are riding a three-game win streak, then you can go the other way and take Pittsburgh. Whichever method you feel the most comfortable with. However, it goes without saying that if the team playing at home is the team riding the three-game win streak, then you ALWAYS pick that team and its not even a debate. End of discussion.7. Above all else, always trust your gutAs football fans, we just kind of have a sixth sense about these kinds of things. So if youre watching the Rams play the Eagles on Sunday Night Football during Week 15, and the top spot in the NFC is on the line White Sony Michel Jerseys , and you want to get behind Jared Goff at home, but your gut instinct is telling you to take Carson Wentz on the road, then its probably a good idea to go with the Eagles. You can disregard all of the above rules if your gut instinct is strongly in favor of one team over the other.In the meantime, lets just hope that Wentz gets out of that game in Los Angeles without any torn ligaments this time.PS: I must reserve the right to add to this list as the season goes along because, as you know, the NFL is unpredictable arnd crazy and anything can happen. The Patriots survived an ugly game in Buffalo, and are now 6-2. Here are my quick-hit thoughts on the game:Tom Brady with a great block on the reverse by Julian Edelman. Even getting in his way was enough to allow Edelman to get to the outside and pick up the first down.I guess Josh Gordon wasnt disciplined as harshly as we thought hed be, hes out there on the first offensive drive.Love Cordarrelle Patterson playing running back. Hes huge and runs hard, could be a good fit back there in spot service.Have to be able to punch the ball into the end zone when you have first and goal.Tom Brady runs like a gazelle, and anyone that says differently is lying.Stephon Gilmore is a shutdown corner. That is all.If I were the Bills, I would run that wheel route to LeSean McCoy 600 times this game. Theres no chance any linebacker can come close to sticking with him.Brady hasnt been sacked much, but it seems like theres always someone in his face. The defense is certainly keeping him off balance.Thank god for Trey Flowers. He was all over the field tonight, clearly the best player in the front 7. Ghost missing the FG at the end of the half really hurt the team. I know its deep, but he needs to hit those, especially when the offense is struggling.I really wasnt enjoying the commentating crew, and then Booger dropped the line about Kelvin Benjamin, saying that he was a Popeyes biscuit away from being a tight end, and I was on board.What an awful play call by McDaniels with a toss sweep to Patterson on 3rd down in the shadow his own end zone, and then a long punt return gave the Bills great field position. Compounding mistakes is how you lose games.Thank god for the Patriots defense/Bills offense for only picking up 4 yards, but the Bills still pull within 3 with a long FG.The Patriots offense is sputtering in the 2nd half, and the defense isnt built to dominate when the offense stinks. And right on cue Sony Michel Jerseys 2019 , Kyle Van Noy smokes the LT and forces the fumble, which is recovered by Chung. And then Rob Gronkowski with one of the most unbelievable catches Ive ever seen to get them to first and goal.Which, of course, they squander again after a bad read by James White on 2nd down, shouldve curled in instead of going outside. Patriots are going to have to punch the ball in the end zone if they expect to continue to win games.Solid stop by the Patriots the following drive, but Elandon Roberts drops what shouldve been a pick 6 by him or Jonathan Jones on third downAfter a good pickup on third and long, Brady almost throw a pick 6, and then on the next play, James White shakes a guy and picks up a first down on third. They finally put the ball in the end zone, but are unable to connect on the two point conversion, so the lead stays at 12.After the Bills get a touchdown overturned, Devin McCourty picks off Derek Anderson and brings it back 80+ yards for the touchdown. Should seal the game for the Patriots. A great job disguising coverage and baiting Anderson into throwing a pass that had no chance of being completed. Before that pick, the Patriots had gone 40 games without a defensive touchdown, which was the longest streak in the NFL.Brady and basically the entire offense ran into the end zone to celebrate with McCourty and the defense. Reminded me of the time he ran into the end zone to meet Edelman after he returned a punt for a TD. The game was basically over, but Ryan Allen shanked his final punt of the game.Overall, the Patriots didnt play great, and wouldve lost to a lot of teams. Luckily, they were playing the Bills, so they were able to pull it out. The game was much closer than the final score might indicate, with the final defensive touchdown putting the game out of reach. On the plus side, they didnt have a running back and were missing the right side of their offensive line when Shaq Mason went out. Against a good Bills defense that was extra motivated because it was Monday night and the Patriots Byron Cowart Jersey Boys , you can see why they struggled. Hopefully they can build on this one and get better. The last time the Patriots, being led by Brady, didnt score a touchdown in the first 3 quarters was 2012 at home against Arizona. Thats the game where Stephen Gostkowski shanked a field goal attempt at the buzzer to lose 20-18.On the injury side, it was good to see Elandon Roberts come back in the game, but his injury is worth keeping an eye on, especially with Donta Hightower missing tonight. Hopefully, Shaq Masons groin injury isnt too serious, and hes able to play soon. Hes a beast who is one of the best guards in the league. Sony Michel was back practicing this week, so you wonder if he could possibly be available for the Green Bay Packers. My first thought is no, but I suppose you never know. Clearly a much different game than last week, but, once again, its just survive and advance for the Patriots tonight. Keep themselves at the top of the division and in contention for the top of the conference. The offense certainly isnt hopeless, as they had scored 38 or more in four straight games, and, although you cant really tell because it was the Bills, the defense seemed to play much better tonight. Once again the ball skills and play making abilities were on display. Big turnovers can change, and oftentimes win, games. A Patriots defense with playmakers on it should be very scary to any opponent.Pat is the host of the Patriot Nation PodcastInteract with him on Twitter @plane_pats